As we approach the end of 2026, the entertainment industry has stopped asking whether the old order is breaking down. The question now is who owns the pieces afterward. A few threads that are unresolved today should come to a head in 2027. This forecast follows them through recorded music, and live events.

Recorded music: a mature business learning to grow differently

Streaming rebuilt the recorded music business. The global industry was worth US$29.6 billion in 2024, with 69 per cent of revenue from streaming, more than double its 2014 size. But the easy growth is largely behind it. Analysts at MIDiA have pointed out that almost 80% of streaming subscriber growth came from non-Western markets and that ad-supported revenues were reportedly flat in 2024.

My expectation is that 2027 is the year this shift becomes the default way of thinking in the industry. Growth will come from three places: emerging markets, price increases and tiering in mature ones, and new categories of licensing. Superfan tiers, bundles and higher-priced plans will matter more than adding subscribers in the US and Western Europe.

AI moves from lawsuit to licensing line item

The biggest change in recorded music is that AI has moved from the courtroom to the balance sheet. Warner Music Group’s CEO said on the company’s August earnings call that the company’s licensing deals with AI firms, including Suno, Stability AI, KLAY and Udio, should contribute materially to subscription streaming revenue growth starting in its 2027 fiscal year, which began October 1, 2026. Warner was the first major label to settle its copyright case with Suno, in November 2025, in a deal that also saw Suno acquire the concert-discovery platform Songkick. musicbusinessworldwide

In 2027 I expect:

• Licensed AI generation becomes a normal product category. Expect licensed tools from the major labels’ partners, with attribution and fingerprinting built in, sold as consumer subscriptions and possibly bundled into existing streaming plans.

• Attribution and detection become infrastructure. Warner has acquired Sureel AI, which tracks how artists’ music is used by AI systems. Whoever builds trusted attribution and royalty-routing technology will hold real leverage. aimusicpreneur

• The artist-compensation fight gets louder. Session musicians, songwriters and independent artists will ask whether AI licensing money reaches them or stays with labels and publishers. This is likely to be the main labor and policy issue in music next year.

• A split between human-made and synthetic. The IFPI has argued that there is no demonstrable consumer demand for AI-generated music. Whether or not that holds, expect streaming platforms to face pressure to label, filter or separately charter AI-generated tracks as upload volumes grow. wipo

The risk to this picture is that licensed AI revenue turns out smaller than label forecasts suggest, or that it cannibalizes human-made streams. Investors have been given large figures, but the 2027 numbers will be the first real test.

Live music: bigger stadiums, tighter control

Live music is the sector where fans are most willing to spend, and the 2027 calendar reflects it. Metallica’s M72 tour has a Sphere residency in Las Vegas running through March 13, 2027, before a North American stadium leg resumes on May 8. Slipknot has announced a stadium tour starting July 3 at Wembley, with dates across North and South America. Oasis returns with 38 stadium shows. Metallica to bring M72 World Tour to Arrowhead Stadium in May 2027 +2

The Oasis announcement points to the more interesting trend, which is how tickets are sold. Prices are fixed, there is no general onsale, and the only route to a ticket is a registration process. That follows the controversy over the band’s 2025 onsale. Meanwhile, the UK’s promised ban on ticket touting remains unlegislated, appearing only as a draft bill subject to consultation. musicbusinessworldwide

Expect 2027 to bring:

• More registration-based and fixed-price sales for the biggest tours, as artists and promoters try to avoid dynamic-pricing backlash and resale scandals.

• A two-speed market. Stadium and arena headliners remain strong, while mid-level touring is squeezed by costs. Promoters are already running discounts for the lower tiers of the market, such as Live Nation’s $99 four-pack lawn tickets in summer 2026.

• Regulatory pressure. Ticketing rules in the UK and elsewhere could change materially, and ticketing practices will stay under scrutiny.

• Residencies and venue-based spectacle such as Sphere continue to attract major acts because they offer predictable revenue without travel.

  
  

  What it adds up to

Three forces tie these sectors together in 2027:

Rights as the new battleground. AI has turned catalogs of music into training assets and licensable inputs. Expect more deals, more lawsuits against holdouts, and growing demands from artists and writers for a share.

The premium on the real thing. As synthetic content becomes cheap, scarce experiences such as stadium shows, theatrical events and live residencies gain value. That helps explain why companies keep investing in them even as costs rise.

A caveat on forecasts

This is a forecast. Each of these threads depends on events that haven’t happened yet, including the first full year of licensed AI revenue, and possible ticketing legislation. If any of them goes the other way, the picture for 2027 will look different.